Cardiff City
Wrexham
The model leans Cardiff City at 53%. Expected goals: Cardiff City 2.30, Wrexham 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 66%. Cardiff City won 2 of their last 6; Wrexham won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cardiff City | 59% | 1.69 | 2.40 | 39% | +21 |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.74 | 3.50 | 27% | −5 |
| 2Wrexham | 20% | 5.07 | 2.65 | 35% | −15 |
Pick: Cardiff City. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.30 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.2%
- 2–07.3%
- 3–17.2%
- 1–06.4%
- 2–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cardiff City −1| Cardiff City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 22% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 19% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 12% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.