Slovan Liberec
Slavia Prague
The model leans Slavia Prague at 50%. Expected goals: Slovan Liberec 1.05, Slavia Prague 1.66. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Slovan Liberec won 4 of their last 6; Slavia Prague won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Slovan Liberec | 23% | 4.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Slavia Prague | 50% | 1.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Slavia Prague. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.05 – 1.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–07.0%
- 0–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 41% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Slavia Prague −0.5| Slovan Liberec line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 15% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.