FC Zbrojovka Brno
Slovan Liberec
The model leans FC Zbrojovka Brno at 41%. Expected goals: FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.20, Slovan Liberec 0.79. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 61%. FC Zbrojovka Brno won 4 of their last 6; Slovan Liberec won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Zbrojovka Brno | 44% | 2.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.06 | – | – | – |
| 2Slovan Liberec | 23% | 4.36 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Zbrojovka Brno. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.20 – 0.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.5%
- 0–013.8%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Zbrojovka Brno −0.5| FC Zbrojovka Brno line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 17% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.