FC Zbrojovka Brno
Sparta Prague
The model leans Sparta Prague at 36%. Expected goals: FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.09, Sparta Prague 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%. FC Zbrojovka Brno won 4 of their last 6; Sparta Prague won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Zbrojovka Brno | 31% | 3.19 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.24 | – | – | – |
| 2Sparta Prague | 38% | 2.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sparta Prague. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.09 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.1%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–09.9%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–27.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Zbrojovka Brno 0| FC Zbrojovka Brno line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 20% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.