Sparta Prague
FC Zlin
The model leans Sparta Prague at 68%. Expected goals: Sparta Prague 2.79, FC Zlin 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 52%. Sparta Prague won 4 of their last 6; FC Zlin won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sparta Prague | 78% | 1.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.83 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Zlin | 7% | 13.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sparta Prague. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.79 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.7%
- 3–010.0%
- 2–18.6%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.7%
- 4–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sparta Prague −2| Sparta Prague line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| -1 | 58% | 20% | 22% |
| -0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| 0 | 78% | 13% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.