Sparta Prague
Teplice
The model leans Sparta Prague at 53%. Expected goals: Sparta Prague 1.82, Teplice 0.79. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. Sparta Prague won 4 of their last 6; Teplice won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sparta Prague | 61% | 1.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.08 | – | – | – |
| 2Teplice | 15% | 6.77 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sparta Prague. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.82 – 0.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.3%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–07.4%
- 0–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sparta Prague −1| Sparta Prague line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.