Teplice
Bohemians 1905
The model leans Teplice at 39%. Expected goals: Teplice 1.10, Bohemians 1905 0.77. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 63%. Teplice won 3 of their last 6; Bohemians 1905 won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Teplice | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.94 | – | – | – |
| 2Bohemians 1905 | 24% | 4.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: Teplice. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.10 – 0.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.9%
- 0–015.3%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.9%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Teplice −0.5| Teplice line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 25% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 31% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 18% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.