Sparta Prague
Slavia Prague
The model leans Sparta Prague at 37%. Expected goals: Sparta Prague 1.64, Slavia Prague 1.51. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 64%. Sparta Prague won 4 of their last 6; Slavia Prague won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sparta Prague | 40% | 2.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Slavia Prague | 34% | 2.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sparta Prague. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 1.51| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sparta Prague 0| Sparta Prague line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 20% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 24% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.