Banik Ostrava
Slavia Prague
The model leans Slavia Prague at 59%. Expected goals: Banik Ostrava 0.96, Slavia Prague 2.26. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 56%. Banik Ostrava won 3 of their last 5; Slavia Prague won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Banik Ostrava | 14% | 7.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.91 | – | – | – |
| 2Slavia Prague | 66% | 1.52 | – | – | – |
Pick: Slavia Prague. Calibrated probability 59% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.96 – 2.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–18.7%
- 0–37.7%
- 1–37.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Slavia Prague −1| Banik Ostrava line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 10% | 85% |
| -0.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| 0 | 15% | 19% | 67% |
| +0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| +1 | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| +1.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.