Predictions · 1. Liga · outside model coverage

Viktoria Plzen

13
Lost

Slovan Liberec

The model leans Viktoria Plzen at 50%. Expected goals: Viktoria Plzen 1.48, Slovan Liberec 0.70. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%. Viktoria Plzen won 2 of their last 6; Slovan Liberec won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Viktoria Plzen55%1.82
XDraw29%3.47
2Slovan Liberec16%6.12

Pick: Viktoria Plzen. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.48 – 0.70
LineOverUnder
1.564%36%
2.537%63%
3.518%82%
Both teams to scoreYes39%No61%

Most likely scores

  • 1016.8%
  • 2012.4%
  • 1111.7%
  • 0011.4%
  • 218.6%
  • 017.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Viktoria Plzen −0.5
Viktoria Plzen lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.529%71%
-129%27%44%
-0.556%44%
056%26%18%
+0.582%18%
+182%13%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.