Predictions · 1. Liga · outside model coverage

Viktoria Plzeň

11
Lost

Slovácko

The model leans Viktoria Plzeň at 65%. Expected goals: Viktoria Plzeň 2.17, Slovácko 0.55. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 62%. Viktoria Plzeň won 2 of their last 6; Slovácko won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Viktoria Plzeň74%1.35
XDraw19%5.36
2Slovácko7%13.99

Pick: Viktoria Plzeň. Calibrated probability 65% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.17 – 0.55
LineOverUnder
1.575%25%
2.551%49%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes37%No63%

Most likely scores

  • 2015.6%
  • 1014.4%
  • 3011.3%
  • 218.5%
  • 117.8%
  • 006.6%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 43% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Viktoria Plzeň −1.5
Viktoria Plzeň lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.550%50%
-150%25%25%
-0.575%25%
075%17%8%
+0.592%8%
+192%6%2%
+1.598%2%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.