Viktoria Plzeň
FK Crvena Zvezda
The model leans Viktoria Plzeň at 38%. Expected goals: Viktoria Plzeň 1.32, FK Crvena Zvezda 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Viktoria Plzeň won 2 of their last 6; FK Crvena Zvezda won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Viktoria Plzeň | 41% | 2.44 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Crvena Zvezda | 29% | 3.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: Viktoria Plzeň. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 1.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.5%
- 2–08.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Viktoria Plzeň 0| Viktoria Plzeň line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 23% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 27% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 19% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.