Zenit St. Petersburg
FK Crvena Zvezda
The model leans Zenit St. Petersburg at 50%. Expected goals: Zenit St. Petersburg 1.47, FK Crvena Zvezda 0.71. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%. Zenit St. Petersburg won 3 of their last 6; FK Crvena Zvezda won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Zenit St. Petersburg | 54% | 1.84 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.45 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Crvena Zvezda | 17% | 5.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zenit St. Petersburg. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.47 – 0.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.7%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–011.4%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zenit St. Petersburg −0.5| Zenit St. Petersburg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 27% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 27% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 13% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.