FK Crvena Zvezda
Cukaricki
The model leans FK Crvena Zvezda at 63%. Expected goals: FK Crvena Zvezda 2.19, Cukaricki 0.62. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%. FK Crvena Zvezda won 4 of their last 6; Cukaricki won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FK Crvena Zvezda | 73% | 1.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.25 | – | – | – |
| 2Cukaricki | 8% | 12.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: FK Crvena Zvezda. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 73%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.19 – 0.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.5%
- 1–013.2%
- 3–010.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FK Crvena Zvezda −1.5| FK Crvena Zvezda line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| -1 | 49% | 24% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 7% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.