Predictions · Ekstraklasa · outside model coverage

Legia Warszawa

11
Lost

Śląsk Wrocław

The model leans Legia Warszawa at 47%. Expected goals: Legia Warszawa 1.63, Śląsk Wrocław 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Legia Warszawa won 3 of their last 6; Śląsk Wrocław won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Legia Warszawa49%2.05
XDraw27%3.70
2Śląsk Wrocław24%4.14

Pick: Legia Warszawa. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.63 – 1.08
LineOverUnder
1.575%25%
2.551%49%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes53%No47%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.7%
  • 1010.8%
  • 219.5%
  • 208.8%
  • 017.2%
  • 006.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 42% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Legia Warszawa −0.5
Legia Warszawa lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.526%74%
-126%24%50%
-0.550%50%
050%25%25%
+0.575%25%
+175%16%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.