Legia Warszawa
Śląsk Wrocław
The model leans Legia Warszawa at 47%. Expected goals: Legia Warszawa 1.63, Śląsk Wrocław 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Legia Warszawa won 3 of their last 6; Śląsk Wrocław won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Legia Warszawa | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.70 | – | – | – |
| 2Śląsk Wrocław | 24% | 4.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: Legia Warszawa. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.63 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–17.2%
- 0–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 42% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Legia Warszawa −0.5| Legia Warszawa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 16% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.