Śląsk Wrocław
Raków Częstochowa
The model leans Raków Częstochowa at 41%. Expected goals: Śląsk Wrocław 1.46, Raków Częstochowa 1.79. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%. Śląsk Wrocław won 1 of their last 6; Raków Częstochowa won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Śląsk Wrocław | 31% | 3.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Raków Częstochowa | 44% | 2.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Raków Częstochowa. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.46 – 1.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Raków Częstochowa −0.5| Śląsk Wrocław line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 17% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 21% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.