Predictions · Ekstraklasa · outside model coverage

Śląsk Wrocław

21
Lost

Raków Częstochowa

The model leans Raków Częstochowa at 41%. Expected goals: Śląsk Wrocław 1.46, Raków Częstochowa 1.79. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%. Śląsk Wrocław won 1 of their last 6; Raków Częstochowa won 0 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Śląsk Wrocław31%3.27
XDraw25%4.00
2Raków Częstochowa44%2.25

Pick: Raków Częstochowa. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.46 – 1.79
LineOverUnder
1.583%17%
2.563%37%
3.541%59%
Both teams to scoreYes64%No36%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.2%
  • 129.1%
  • 217.4%
  • 017.0%
  • 226.6%
  • 026.2%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Raków Częstochowa −0.5
Śląsk Wrocław lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.514%86%
-114%17%68%
-0.532%68%
032%23%45%
+0.555%45%
+155%21%25%
+1.575%25%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.