Raków Częstochowa
Wisła Płock
The model leans Raków Częstochowa at 51%. Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa 1.57, Wisła Płock 0.73. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%. Raków Częstochowa won 0 of their last 5; Wisła Płock won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Raków Częstochowa | 56% | 1.77 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Wisła Płock | 16% | 6.23 | – | – | – |
Pick: Raków Częstochowa. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.57 – 0.73| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.8%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Raków Częstochowa −1| Raków Częstochowa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 27% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 25% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.