Wisła Płock
Korona Kielce
The model leans Korona Kielce at 30%. Expected goals: Wisła Płock 0.82, Korona Kielce 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 64%. Wisła Płock won 1 of their last 5; Korona Kielce won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wisła Płock | 28% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.80 | – | – | – |
| 2Korona Kielce | 36% | 2.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Korona Kielce. Calibrated probability 30% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.82 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 0–016.9%
- 0–116.2%
- 1–013.9%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Wisła Płock 0| Wisła Płock line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 20% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 33% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.