Korona Kielce
Legia Warszawa
The model leans Draw at 29%. Expected goals: Korona Kielce 0.95, Legia Warszawa 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 61%. Korona Kielce won 2 of their last 5; Legia Warszawa won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Korona Kielce | 32% | 3.11 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.91 | – | – | – |
| 2Legia Warszawa | 33% | 2.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 34%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.95 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 0–014.7%
- 0–114.3%
- 1–013.9%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–26.9%
- 2–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Korona Kielce 0| Korona Kielce line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 21% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 32% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.