Predictions · Ekstraklasa · outside model coverage

Legia Warszawa

50
Won

Radomiak Radom

The model leans Legia Warszawa at 46%. Expected goals: Legia Warszawa 1.52, Radomiak Radom 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 50%. Legia Warszawa won 3 of their last 6; Radomiak Radom won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Legia Warszawa48%2.07
XDraw28%3.54
2Radomiak Radom23%4.28

Pick: Legia Warszawa. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.52 – 0.99
LineOverUnder
1.571%29%
2.546%54%
3.524%76%
Both teams to scoreYes49%No51%

Most likely scores

  • 1012.4%
  • 1112.2%
  • 209.4%
  • 219.3%
  • 008.1%
  • 018.0%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Legia Warszawa −0.5
Legia Warszawa lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.525%75%
-125%24%50%
-0.550%50%
050%26%25%
+0.575%25%
+175%16%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.