Radomiak Radom
Górnik Zabrze
The model leans Górnik Zabrze at 44%. Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.05, Górnik Zabrze 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. Radomiak Radom won 2 of their last 6; Górnik Zabrze won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Radomiak Radom | 25% | 4.06 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.57 | – | – | – |
| 2Górnik Zabrze | 47% | 2.11 | – | – | – |
Pick: Górnik Zabrze. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.05 – 1.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Górnik Zabrze −0.5| Radomiak Radom line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 16% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 26% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.