Predictions · Ekstraklasa · outside model coverage

Radomiak Radom

13
Won

Górnik Zabrze

The model leans Górnik Zabrze at 44%. Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.05, Górnik Zabrze 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. Radomiak Radom won 2 of their last 6; Górnik Zabrze won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Radomiak Radom25%4.06
XDraw28%3.57
2Górnik Zabrze47%2.11

Pick: Górnik Zabrze. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.05 – 1.54
LineOverUnder
1.573%27%
2.548%52%
3.526%74%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.2%
  • 0111.6%
  • 129.3%
  • 028.9%
  • 107.9%
  • 007.6%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Górnik Zabrze −0.5
Radomiak Radom lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.510%90%
-110%16%74%
-0.526%74%
026%26%49%
+0.551%49%
+151%24%25%
+1.575%25%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.