Predictions · Ekstraklasa · outside model coverage

Górnik Zabrze

23
Lost

GKS Katowice

The model leans Górnik Zabrze at 42%. Expected goals: Górnik Zabrze 1.49, GKS Katowice 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. Górnik Zabrze won 4 of their last 6; GKS Katowice won 3 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Górnik Zabrze46%2.18
XDraw28%3.52
2GKS Katowice26%3.90

Pick: Górnik Zabrze. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.49 – 1.06
LineOverUnder
1.572%28%
2.547%53%
3.525%75%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.3%
  • 1011.7%
  • 219.2%
  • 208.7%
  • 018.3%
  • 007.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Górnik Zabrze −0.5
Górnik Zabrze lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.524%76%
-124%24%53%
-0.547%53%
047%26%27%
+0.573%27%
+173%17%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.