Motor Lublin
GKS Katowice
The model leans GKS Katowice at 41%. Expected goals: Motor Lublin 1.41, GKS Katowice 1.74. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Motor Lublin won 1 of their last 6; GKS Katowice won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Motor Lublin | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.94 | – | – | – |
| 2GKS Katowice | 45% | 2.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: GKS Katowice. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.41 – 1.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–17.5%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–26.5%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: GKS Katowice −0.5| Motor Lublin line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 17% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 23% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 21% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.