GKS Katowice
Wisła Płock
The model leans GKS Katowice at 51%. Expected goals: GKS Katowice 1.62, Wisła Płock 0.77. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%. GKS Katowice won 3 of their last 5; Wisła Płock won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1GKS Katowice | 56% | 1.77 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.71 | – | – | – |
| 2Wisła Płock | 17% | 6.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: GKS Katowice. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.62 – 0.77| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.8%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
- 0–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: GKS Katowice −1| GKS Katowice line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 26% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 25% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 12% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.