Wisła Płock
Widzew Łódź
The model leans Draw at 36%. Expected goals: Wisła Płock 0.71, Widzew Łódź 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 68%. Wisła Płock won 1 of their last 5; Widzew Łódź won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wisła Płock | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.68 | – | – | – |
| 2Widzew Łódź | 37% | 2.71 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.71 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 78% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes30% | No70% |
Most likely scores
- 0–019.8%
- 0–118.0%
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–25.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 68% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Wisła Płock 0| Wisła Płock line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 19% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 35% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.