Widzew Łódź
Lech Poznań
The model leans Lech Poznań at 37%. Expected goals: Widzew Łódź 1.04, Lech Poznań 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. Widzew Łódź won 1 of their last 6; Lech Poznań won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Widzew Łódź | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.20 | – | – | – |
| 2Lech Poznań | 39% | 2.59 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lech Poznań. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.04 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–27.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Widzew Łódź 0| Widzew Łódź line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.