Wieczysta Kraków
Lech Poznań
The model leans Lech Poznań at 50%. Expected goals: Wieczysta Kraków 1.49, Lech Poznań 2.07. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. Wieczysta Kraków won 1 of their last 5; Lech Poznań won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wieczysta Kraków | 27% | 3.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Lech Poznań | 50% | 1.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lech Poznań. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.49 – 2.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.1%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–26.8%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–36.3%
- 0–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lech Poznań −0.5| Wieczysta Kraków line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 15% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 21% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 21% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.