Piast Gliwice
Wieczysta Kraków
The model leans Piast Gliwice at 39%. Expected goals: Piast Gliwice 1.71, Wieczysta Kraków 1.46. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 64%. Piast Gliwice won 2 of their last 6; Wieczysta Kraków won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Piast Gliwice | 43% | 2.35 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.93 | – | – | – |
| 2Wieczysta Kraków | 32% | 3.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Piast Gliwice. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.71 – 1.46| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.7%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–06.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Piast Gliwice 0| Piast Gliwice line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 21% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.