Predictions · Ekstraklasa · outside model coverage

Piast Gliwice

34
Lost

Wieczysta Kraków

The model leans Piast Gliwice at 39%. Expected goals: Piast Gliwice 1.71, Wieczysta Kraków 1.46. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 64%. Piast Gliwice won 2 of their last 6; Wieczysta Kraków won 1 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Piast Gliwice43%2.35
XDraw25%3.93
2Wieczysta Kraków32%3.13

Pick: Piast Gliwice. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.71 – 1.46
LineOverUnder
1.583%17%
2.562%38%
3.539%61%
Both teams to scoreYes63%No37%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.5%
  • 219.0%
  • 127.7%
  • 107.2%
  • 226.6%
  • 206.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Piast Gliwice 0
Piast Gliwice lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.523%77%
-123%21%56%
-0.544%56%
044%23%33%
+0.567%33%
+167%18%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.