Lech Poznań
Piast Gliwice
The model leans Lech Poznań at 51%. Expected goals: Lech Poznań 1.95, Piast Gliwice 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%. Lech Poznań won 5 of their last 6; Piast Gliwice won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lech Poznań | 58% | 1.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.21 | – | – | – |
| 2Piast Gliwice | 18% | 5.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lech Poznań. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.95 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–110.0%
- 2–09.8%
- 3–16.5%
- 3–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lech Poznań −1| Lech Poznań line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 24% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.