Piast Gliwice
Legia Warszawa
The model leans Legia Warszawa at 36%. Expected goals: Piast Gliwice 1.04, Legia Warszawa 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%. Piast Gliwice won 2 of their last 6; Legia Warszawa won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Piast Gliwice | 31% | 3.22 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.15 | – | – | – |
| 2Legia Warszawa | 37% | 2.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: Legia Warszawa. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.04 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.9%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–27.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Piast Gliwice 0| Piast Gliwice line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 29% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.