Legia Warszawa
Zagłębie Lubin
The model leans Legia Warszawa at 37%. Expected goals: Legia Warszawa 0.99, Zagłębie Lubin 0.76. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 65%. Legia Warszawa won 3 of their last 6; Zagłębie Lubin won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Legia Warszawa | 38% | 2.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.80 | – | – | – |
| 2Zagłębie Lubin | 26% | 3.85 | – | – | – |
Pick: Legia Warszawa. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.99 – 0.76| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 0–017.4%
- 1–017.1%
- 0–113.3%
- 1–113.1%
- 2–08.5%
- 2–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Legia Warszawa 0| Legia Warszawa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 24% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 33% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 19% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.