Pogoń Szczecin
Legia Warszawa
The model leans Pogoń Szczecin at 29%. Expected goals: Pogoń Szczecin 1.10, Legia Warszawa 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%. Pogoń Szczecin won 2 of their last 5; Legia Warszawa won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pogoń Szczecin | 35% | 2.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.13 | – | – | – |
| 2Legia Warszawa | 34% | 2.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Pogoń Szczecin. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.10 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–112.2%
- 0–011.3%
- 2–17.4%
- 1–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Pogoń Szczecin 0| Pogoń Szczecin line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 21% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.