Pogoń Szczecin
Wisła Kraków
The model leans Pogoń Szczecin at 29%. Expected goals: Pogoń Szczecin 1.28, Wisła Kraków 1.27. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. Pogoń Szczecin won 2 of their last 5; Wisła Kraków won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pogoń Szczecin | 36% | 2.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
| 2Wisła Kraków | 35% | 2.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: Pogoń Szczecin. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.28 – 1.27| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Pogoń Szczecin 0| Pogoń Szczecin line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.