Predictions · Ekstraklasa · outside model coverage

Piast Gliwice

43
Lost

Wisła Kraków

The model leans Wisła Kraków at 37%. Expected goals: Piast Gliwice 1.21, Wisła Kraków 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. Piast Gliwice won 2 of their last 6; Wisła Kraków won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Piast Gliwice32%3.14
XDraw29%3.45
2Wisła Kraków39%2.56

Pick: Wisła Kraków. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.21 – 1.36
LineOverUnder
1.573%27%
2.547%53%
3.526%74%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.6%
  • 0110.5%
  • 109.3%
  • 128.6%
  • 007.7%
  • 217.6%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Piast Gliwice 0
Piast Gliwice lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.514%86%
-114%19%67%
-0.533%67%
033%27%40%
+0.560%40%
+160%22%19%
+1.581%19%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.