Cracovia
Pogoń Szczecin
The model leans Pogoń Szczecin at 36%. Expected goals: Cracovia 1.03, Pogoń Szczecin 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%. Cracovia won 2 of their last 6; Pogoń Szczecin won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cracovia | 31% | 3.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.14 | – | – | – |
| 2Pogoń Szczecin | 37% | 2.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: Pogoń Szczecin. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.03 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%
- 0–113.0%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–011.2%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–27.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cracovia 0| Cracovia line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 22% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.