Predictions · Ekstraklasa · outside model coverage

Radomiak Radom

21
Won

Wieczysta Kraków

The model leans Radomiak Radom at 40%. Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.91, Wieczysta Kraków 1.64. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 70%. Radomiak Radom won 2 of their last 6; Wieczysta Kraków won 1 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Radomiak Radom44%2.28
XDraw24%4.22
2Wieczysta Kraków33%3.07

Pick: Radomiak Radom. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.91 – 1.64
LineOverUnder
1.587%13%
2.569%31%
3.547%53%
Both teams to scoreYes69%No31%

Most likely scores

  • 119.0%
  • 218.6%
  • 127.4%
  • 227.0%
  • 315.5%
  • 105.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Radomiak Radom −0.5
Radomiak Radom lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.525%75%
-125%20%55%
-0.545%55%
045%22%33%
+0.567%33%
+167%17%16%
+1.584%16%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.