Widzew Łódź
Motor Lublin
The model leans Widzew Łódź at 41%. Expected goals: Widzew Łódź 1.35, Motor Lublin 0.94. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 54%. Widzew Łódź won 1 of their last 6; Motor Lublin won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Widzew Łódź | 45% | 2.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
| 2Motor Lublin | 25% | 4.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Widzew Łódź. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.35 – 0.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.6%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.1%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–09.2%
- 2–18.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Widzew Łódź −0.5| Widzew Łódź line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.