Raków Częstochowa
Jagiellonia Białystok
The model leans Raków Częstochowa at 39%. Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa 1.54, Jagiellonia Białystok 1.30. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Raków Częstochowa won 0 of their last 5; Jagiellonia Białystok won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Raków Częstochowa | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.67 | – | – | – |
| 2Jagiellonia Białystok | 31% | 3.23 | – | – | – |
Pick: Raków Częstochowa. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.54 – 1.30| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.6%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Raków Częstochowa 0| Raków Częstochowa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 22% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.