Paris Saint-Germain
Monaco
The model leans Paris Saint-Germain at 64%. Expected goals: Paris Saint-Germain 2.77, Monaco 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 60%. Paris Saint-Germain won 0 of their last 3; Monaco won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris Saint-Germain | 74% | 1.36 | 1.30 | 72% | +2 |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.23 | 5.65 | 17% | 0 |
| 2Monaco | 10% | 9.63 | 8.00 | 12% | −1 |
Pick: Paris Saint-Germain. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.77 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.9%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–18.2%
- 3–08.2%
- 1–16.4%
- 1–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Paris Saint-Germain −1.5| Paris Saint-Germain line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| -1 | 54% | 20% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 7% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Unibet_France| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 | 1.50 | 63% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 41% | 2.46 | 2.55 | 37% | +4 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.