Lille
Paris Saint-Germain
The model leans Paris Saint-Germain at 50%. Expected goals: Lille 0.90, Paris Saint-Germain 1.50. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%. Lille won 4 of their last 6; Paris Saint-Germain won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lille | 21% | 4.70 | 5.05 | 19% | +3 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.50 | 3.85 | 24% | +4 |
| 2Paris Saint-Germain | 50% | 1.99 | 1.65 | 57% | −7 |
Pick: Paris Saint-Germain. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.90 – 1.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.7%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–08.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Paris Saint-Germain −0.5| Lille line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 15% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.