Mornar
Buducnost Podgorica
The model leans Mornar at 51%. Expected goals: Mornar 1.28, Buducnost Podgorica 0.48. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 71%. Mornar won 3 of their last 6; Buducnost Podgorica won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mornar | 56% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.16 | – | – | – |
| 2Buducnost Podgorica | 13% | 7.78 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mornar. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.28 – 0.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes28% | No72% |
Most likely scores
- 1–022.0%
- 0–017.2%
- 2–014.1%
- 1–110.6%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mornar −0.5| Mornar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 30% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 30% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 11% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.