FK Arsenal Tivat
Buducnost Podgorica
The model leans FK Arsenal Tivat at 29%. Expected goals: FK Arsenal Tivat 0.98, Buducnost Podgorica 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 62%. FK Arsenal Tivat won 0 of their last 4; Buducnost Podgorica won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FK Arsenal Tivat | 35% | 2.83 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
| 2Buducnost Podgorica | 30% | 3.36 | – | – | – |
Pick: FK Arsenal Tivat. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.98 – 0.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 0–015.6%
- 1–015.3%
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.4%
- 2–07.5%
- 2–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FK Arsenal Tivat 0| FK Arsenal Tivat line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 23% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 32% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.