Mornar
FK Arsenal Tivat
The model leans Mornar at 57%. Expected goals: Mornar 1.74, FK Arsenal Tivat 0.55. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 64%. Mornar won 3 of their last 6; FK Arsenal Tivat won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mornar | 65% | 1.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.11 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Arsenal Tivat | 10% | 9.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mornar. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.74 – 0.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.5%
- 2–015.3%
- 0–010.1%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–08.9%
- 2–18.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mornar −1| Mornar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 22% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.