Petrovac
Mornar
The model leans Mornar at 37%. Expected goals: Petrovac 0.78, Mornar 1.04. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 64%. Petrovac won 1 of their last 4; Mornar won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Petrovac | 26% | 3.91 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.86 | – | – | – |
| 2Mornar | 39% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mornar. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.78 – 1.04| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 0–116.9%
- 0–016.3%
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.7%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–26.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Petrovac 0| Petrovac line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 19% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 32% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.