Jezero
Mornar
The model leans Mornar at 50%. Expected goals: Jezero 0.66, Mornar 1.39. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%. Jezero won 1 of their last 5; Mornar won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jezero | 17% | 6.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Mornar | 53% | 1.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mornar. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.66 – 1.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.9%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–212.4%
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–28.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mornar −0.5| Jezero line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 13% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 28% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.