Jezero
Sutjeska
The model leans Sutjeska at 50%. Expected goals: Jezero 0.97, Sutjeska 1.67. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. Jezero won 1 of their last 5; Sutjeska won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jezero | 21% | 4.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Sutjeska | 53% | 1.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sutjeska. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.97 – 1.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 0–111.9%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.2%
- 1–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 43% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sutjeska −0.5| Jezero line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.