Predictions · 1. CFL · outside model coverage

Sutjeska

51
Won

OFK Mladost Donja Gorica

The model leans Sutjeska at 60%. Expected goals: Sutjeska 2.40, OFK Mladost Donja Gorica 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%. Sutjeska won 1 of their last 4; OFK Mladost Donja Gorica won 0 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Sutjeska67%1.50
XDraw19%5.14
2OFK Mladost Donja Gorica14%7.21

Pick: Sutjeska. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.40 – 1.03
LineOverUnder
1.586%14%
2.567%33%
3.545%55%
Both teams to scoreYes59%No41%

Most likely scores

  • 219.6%
  • 209.3%
  • 118.0%
  • 107.8%
  • 317.7%
  • 307.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Sutjeska −1.5
Sutjeska lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.545%55%
-145%22%33%
-0.567%33%
067%18%15%
+0.585%15%
+185%10%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.