Mornar
FK Bokelj
The model leans Mornar at 55%. Expected goals: Mornar 1.63, FK Bokelj 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 66%. Mornar won 3 of their last 6; FK Bokelj won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mornar | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.86 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Bokelj | 11% | 9.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mornar. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.63 – 0.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.7%
- 2–015.2%
- 0–011.5%
- 1–110.0%
- 3–08.3%
- 2–18.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mornar −1| Mornar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 24% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.