Predictions · 1. CFL · outside model coverage

Mornar

20
Won

FK Bokelj

The model leans Mornar at 55%. Expected goals: Mornar 1.63, FK Bokelj 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 66%. Mornar won 3 of their last 6; FK Bokelj won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Mornar63%1.58
XDraw26%3.86
2FK Bokelj11%9.21

Pick: Mornar. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.63 – 0.54
LineOverUnder
1.564%36%
2.537%63%
3.517%83%
Both teams to scoreYes33%No67%

Most likely scores

  • 1018.7%
  • 2015.2%
  • 0011.5%
  • 1110.0%
  • 308.3%
  • 218.2%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Mornar −1
Mornar lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.536%64%
-136%28%36%
-0.564%36%
064%24%12%
+0.588%12%
+188%9%3%
+1.597%3%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.