Predictions · 1. CFL · outside model coverage

Decic Tuzi

00
Lost

FK Arsenal Tivat

The model leans Decic Tuzi at 44%. Expected goals: Decic Tuzi 1.46, FK Arsenal Tivat 0.94. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 52%. Decic Tuzi won 3 of their last 4; FK Arsenal Tivat won 0 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Decic Tuzi48%2.09
XDraw29%3.44
2FK Arsenal Tivat23%4.31

Pick: Decic Tuzi. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.46 – 0.94
LineOverUnder
1.569%31%
2.543%57%
3.522%78%
Both teams to scoreYes47%No53%

Most likely scores

  • 1013.2%
  • 1112.5%
  • 209.6%
  • 009.1%
  • 219.1%
  • 018.6%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Decic Tuzi −0.5
Decic Tuzi lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.524%76%
-124%25%51%
-0.549%51%
049%27%24%
+0.576%24%
+176%16%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.