Newcastle United
AFC Bournemouth
The model leans Newcastle United at 38%. Expected goals: Newcastle United 1.69, AFC Bournemouth 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%. Newcastle United won 2 of their last 6; AFC Bournemouth won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Newcastle United | 41% | 2.47 | 2.10 | 45% | −5 |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.95 | 3.60 | 26% | −1 |
| 2AFC Bournemouth | 34% | 2.93 | 3.30 | 29% | +5 |
Pick: Newcastle United. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.69 – 1.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–110.3%13.3%
- 2–18.7%7.7%
- 1–27.9%–
- 2–26.7%8.3%
- 1–06.7%8.3%
- 0–16.1%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Newcastle United 0| Newcastle United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 20% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 23% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 18% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Newcastle United -0.25 | 47% | 2.13 | 1.85 | 52% | −5 |
| Asian handicap | AFC Bournemouth +0.25 | 53% | 1.89 | 2.00 | 48% | +5 |
| Draw no bet | Newcastle United | 54% | 1.84 | 1.53 | 61% | −7 |
| Draw no bet | AFC Bournemouth | 46% | 2.19 | 2.38 | 39% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 | 1.50 | 63% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 36% | 2.78 | 2.50 | 38% | −2 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.